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Ivy League Elo 2018: Week 4

Week four of Ivy League football is upon us. Last week the model has a dismal performance going 0-2 in predictions again. Dartmouth dominated Yale on their home turf 41 to 18. More importantly however, the other game featured an underdog victory by our Big Red, who were able to hand Harvard a 28 to 24 loss in Ithaca. As for our Mike vs. the Machine section of predictions, I was able to find my footing. I correctly predicted the Cornell upset and read the model’s biases correctly in its over confidence in Yale. I picked against the machine in both matches to improve my record to 4-2.

As for team’s Elo ratings, Cornell was able to gain 21 points in their rating with their unexpected victory and Dartmouth gained 37 points in their blowout victory. Also, as always check out my original Elo article for a full explanation of the model.

Week 3 Predictions

Princeton vs Brown, Saturday, October 13th at 1:00PM

Nothing against Brown, but this game is going to be a blowout. Princeton, one of the better teams in the league, is playing at home against Brown. Brown has been the worst team in the league and currently holds the lowest Elo rating in the league by almost 80 points. Brown is only a handful of losses away from the low water mark all time for Elo ratings, but back to the game. Princeton wins this game handily according to both myself and the model.

Machine: Princeton

Mike: Princeton

University of Pennsylvania vs Columbia, Saturday, October 13th at 1:00PM

This matchup appears to be another straight forward game. The University of Pennsylvania seems to be the better team here and should win in their home stadium. Unless Columbia is able to muster up some of their magic from last season I see this as a comfortable Penn victory. The machine and I agree in this contest.

Machine: Penn

Mike: Penn

We will see how both the Model and I fair next week keeping coming back for weekly game predictions!

Machine’s Prediction Record: 4-2

Mike’s Prediction Record:4-2


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