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Elo 2017: Cornell plays Harvard at Home, Dartmouth and Yale Face Off

We are back this week for more Elo Predictions. First, we will start by recapping last week. The model failed to call the winner for both games and some might say it was by a considerable margin. However, last week’s failure does not discredit the model nor does it mean it is inaccurate. Both of last week’s games were upsets even by conventional prediction methods, so it makes sense that they would also be upsets for Elo. The model gave Dartmouth a 28% probability of winning at Penn or about a 1 in 4 chance, which is not all that uncommon of a result. In the other game Columbia had an 18% probability to beat Princeton or just under 1 in 5 odds, which again is not that strange of an occurrence. While we were hoping Elo would be perfect we understand that it is near impossible to be able to predict every game right and while last week was slightly disheartening for the model it is not time yet to consider reevaluating our formula.

There were some decent shifts in ratings from last week’s upset so check out the teams’ Elo scores for this week.

Week 3 Prediction are calculated below.

Cornell vs. Harvard, Saturday, October 7 at 1:30pm

This week our Cornell Big Red face off against the Crimson at Schoellkopf Stadium. This looks to be another tough one for the 0-3 Big Red. Their Elo rating is 247 points below Harvard, giving them a mere 26% chance of winning with a lot of their winning probability coming from the fact they are playing at home. Cornell is still stuck in last place for both Elo rating and overall record. They are looking to get their season back on track and a win over a powerful Harvard team would do just that.

Yale vs. Dartmouth, Friday, October 7 at 1:30pm

This is the closest Ivy League game this year according to our model.  Dartmouth has a slightly higher chance of winning, as the calculated spread only favors them by 4 points. Dartmouth is looking strong after coming off of an away win at the University of Pennsylvania and is hoping to get another win by defeating Yale. We will have to see later this afternoon how this one ends up.

The Elo model sits 2-2 in game projections so far. Check back next week for more Elo predictions.


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