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Elo 2017: Predictions for this weekend’s matchups

This article is part of a weekly series in which BRSN uses a statistical model based on past game scores to predict future outcomes. For an introduction, see our original article

Week one was a success for Elo. The model predicted both winners correctly and even though the games were not that close the model still chose the winner of both games. Last week’s games ended with a win for both home teams. Harvard defeated Brown 45 to 28 and the Crimson improved their Elo by 12 points to 1607, while Brown fell to a rating of 1431. Our Big Red sadly lost to Yale by a score of 24 to 49 and dropped 17 points to end the week dead last with a 1360 Elo score, while Yale improved to 1497.

Only two Ivy League games have been played so far in the 2017 season so no major Elo changes have occurred yet. Below are the Elo graphs for the four teams that have played an Ivy game so far.

Week 2 predictions are calculated below.

Dartmouth vs. University of Pennsylvania, Friday, September 29 at 7:00pm

The Big Green play in Pennsylvania later today and Elo shows the odds are not in its favor. The team has a 28% percent chance to pull the upset on the Quakers. Even though both teams are 2-0 overall this is their first Ivy Game and their Elo ratings are quite different. Penn holds a commanding 100+ Elo point lead over Dartmouth, 1615 to 1512.

Columbia vs. Princeton, Saturday, September 30 at 12:30pm

The most lopsided game this week is Columbia at Princeton. Columbia has a dismal 17% chance of victory and has an Elo rating almost 200 points lower than Princeton. Both teams have yet to play an Ivy game and are 2-0 in their games so far. Princeton is the clear favorite in this contest on their home field.

The projections this week are again relatively simple. Neither game appears to be very close and the higher rated teams are both playing at home. So far the Elo model is 2-0 in games and after this week it appears the model will start off with a perfect record. Check back next week for more on Ivy League Elo.

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