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Ivy League Elo 2018: Week 5

Week five of Ivy League football is here. The recap from last week is not too exciting. Princeton beat Brown handily at home by more than 30 points. The University of Pennsylvania beat Columbia at home, but just barely. However, close doesn’t matter in Ivy League football because a win is a win. The model and I both went 2 for 2 last week and improved to 6-2 on the season.

This week happens to be our first full weekend of Ivy games with four games being played. All eight teams will be playing a contest this weekend so there is a lot of room for shakeups in our Elo rankings. Also, as always check out my original Elo article for a full explanation of the model.

Week 5 Predictions

Yale at the University of Pennsylvania, Friday, October 19th at 7:00PM

This game is going to be close. Both teams are having quite a good season so far. The model is projecting Penn to bring this game home; however, I have to disagree. I feel as thought Yale is underrated in the ratings this year and while this game will be close in Pennsylvania, the Bulldogs will come out with a win.

Machine: Penn

Mike: Yale

Princeton at Harvard, Saturday, October 20th at 12:00PM


This matchup favors Princeton. Harvard has the advantage of playing at home, but I still believe the model over values homefield advantage. Princeton is coming off of a comfortable win over Brown and is carrying a lot of momentum in addition to having a great team and the second highest Elo rating this season. The model and I agree here and are giving Princeton the win.

Machine: Princeton

Mike: Princeton

Cornell at Brown, Saturday, October 20th at 1:00PM


Brown continues a meteoric season after getting blown out by Princeton last week. The sit at the bottom of the Elo ratings and things are looking very kind to the team. If there is one situation where Brown could steal a win it would be this week against Cornell. However, Cornell is not a team to be underestimated. They upset Harvard not too long ago and will most likely be able to handily win this matchup.

Machine: Cornell

Mike: Cornell

Dartmouth at Columbia, Saturday, October 20th at 1:30PM


This game should be the most lopsided one of the week. Dartmouth is the top rating Elo team so far and the only reason Dartmouth is projected to win by more is because this game is taking place in New York. Columbia is not having a great year and trails Dartmouth by just under 200 Elo points. The Big Green should win this game an continue on their great season.

Machine: Dartmouth

Mike: Dartmouth

We will see how both the Model and I fair next week keeping coming back for weekly game predictions!

Machine’s Prediction Record: 6-2

Mike’s Prediction Record: 6-2


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