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Ivy League Elo: Week 1

Ivy League Elo is back for another season! The game predictions last year were decent. The model had a prediction record of 16-12. While these aren’t stellar results, the Elo model is very simplistic so it does have limitations. For those who are new to Ivy League Elo please check out the earlier article for a full explanation of the model. However, as a quick refresher, Elo works as a rating system the higher the number the better the team should be. A theoretical “Average Team” has a rating of 1500. The model only factors in the final game score and the strength of the opponent and whenever a team wins a game their rating increases and whenever they lose it decrease, without exception. Also, perhaps the most important information about the Ivy League Elo is that it is limited to only analyzing games between Ivy League Teams.

The model is not static and based on the results from last season I have decided to tweak it in hopes of making it more accurate. I will be reducing the Elo boost that home teams get from 65 to 50 because last season Elo predicted the home team to win about 70% of the time.  

With our model housekeeping out of the way lets look at the Elo Ratings for this upcoming season.

University of Pennslyvania – 1588

Yale – 1570

Princeton – 1548

Dartmouth – 1545

Harvard – 1511

Columbia – 1476

Cornell – 1409

Brown – 1358

Despite Yale being the Ivy Champion, UPenn took home the Elo crown and is our model’s odds on favorite to retake it again this year. Our Big Red are not doing too great right now coming off of 3 straight losses to end the season last year. However, with this week’s homecoming opponent being Yale, if the Big Red come out of the gate with a win, they could be well on there way to a stellar season.

Predictions

Harvard at Brown, Friday, September 21st at 7:00PM


The first Ivy game of the week is Harvard vs. Brown. I think Harvard will win this one handily and the model agrees. Harvard should take this contest and start off the Ivy Season with a win.

Cornell vs. Yale, Saturday, September 22st at 3:00PM


For the most important game of the weekend we have our Big Red vs. Yale. Now this will be a tough contest for Cornell, but with a homecoming crowd in front of them there is a chance our team can defeat the defending Ivy Title holders Yale. We will have to wait and see how the team performs!

Come back for weekly projections for Ivy League Football

Model Prediction Record: 0-0

Mike’s Prediction Record: 0-0

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